Playbook: 5 Shopper Missions Every Category Manager Should Be Watching
Consumers may have returned to stores, but their shopping behaviors continue to evolve.
According to 2025 research from McKinsey, many crisis-era adaptations during COVID — such as digital-first shopping, at-home activities and trade-offs across categories — have since solidified into lasting habits.
Today, shoppers are navigating a complex mix of economic pressures, new technology and evolving social trends, all of which are reshaping purchasing behavior. Research indicates that consumers are increasingly intentional about how, when and where they shop, balancing price sensitivity with convenience, personalization and social media influence.
For category managers, this means shopper missions can’t be analyzed in isolation. Instead, they’re part of a more fluid set of priorities. Understanding important missions shaping today’s shoppers can help brands better anticipate consumer attitudes and behaviors in an environment defined by lasting disruption.
1. Responding to Value
Economic uncertainty, tariffs and rising prices are driving a “value first” mindset among consumers. Price increases and sticker shock — even among high-income shoppers — are causing a loyalty crisis, with some brand loyalists turning away for good, according to eMarketer.
The USDA’s Food Price Index shows that food inflation has cooled since pandemic-era peaks but remains uneven. Overall grocery prices are projected to rise 2.2% in 2025 — slower than in recent years — yet staples like beef and eggs are expected to climb sharply, keeping price sensitivity high. Meanwhile, restaurant meals are forecast to increase nearly twice as fast as groceries, reinforcing trade-offs between dining out and eating at home.
This holiday season, value-conscious behavior is expected to dominate, but it’s not just about price. PwC’s 2025 Holiday Outlook finds that while overall spending may drop 5%, consumers remain focused on traditions, meaningful gifts and smarter shopping.
Gen Z, facing the steepest budget cuts, are expected to opt for frugality and sustainable (e.g., resale/upcycled items) as well as wellness-focused items, while older generations remain steadier spenders and baby boomers are even increasing budgets by 5%. Across generations, shoppers are looking for a balance of value and experience, gravitating toward promotions, bundles and loyalty incentives.
Brand example: Some brands are recalibrating their approach to inflation. Kellanova, for example, is returning to more traditional pricing and promotional strategies after years of heavy price increases, using flexible pack sizes and timed promotions to meet financially strained households where they are, while continuing to invest in innovation and brand-building.
Takeaway: Category managers can respond by offering flexible assortments, targeted promotions and personalized messaging to help shoppers feel confident they’re getting value without sacrificing choice.
2. AI-Driven ‘Dinner Tonight’ Ideas
Artificial intelligence is increasingly shaping meal planning and grocery decisions. One-quarter of Americans using AI rely on it for recipes or meal planning, according to a 2025 Vitamin Shoppe report. Generative AI is becoming a popular shopping assistant, helping consumers find recipes, plan dinners and explore new products.
A recent report by media company Future shows shopping is the second-most common daily AI use. What's more, shoppers use AI to research products, get recommendations and discover unique items, and AI-driven traffic shows higher engagement — 12% more pages viewed per visit and 23% lower bounce rates — than non-AI traffic, according to Adobe. While conversions remain lower than traditional channels, the gap is shrinking, indicating growing comfort completing purchases after using AI.
Brand example: Albertsons Cos. enhanced its Ask AI search tool across all apps by integrating Google Cloud’s Conversational Commerce agent, enabling multi-turn conversations for meal planning, product comparisons and bundle suggestions. Early results show customers often add extra items to their baskets, demonstrating how AI can guide and influence purchases in real time.
Takeaway: Category managers can support this trend by making meal solutions, recipe kits, and complementary items easy to discover online and in-store. Aligning digital content with AI queries — e.g., “quick weeknight dinners” or “family-friendly meals” — helps capture shoppers at the point of inspiration.
3. Social Media-Driven Occasion
Social media is increasingly influencing consumer discovery and purchasing decisions. According to McKinsey, nearly 30% of consumers in the U.S., U.K. and Germany have purchased a brand they discovered via social channels. Consumers are turning to platforms such as Instagram and TikTok for inspiration on holidays, celebrations and lifestyle moments, creating opportunities for brands to link inspiration directly to the purchase path.
Brand example: Candy brand Joyride used social media to drive in-store sales at Target. The brand promoted exclusive SKUs with a sweepstakes and a Guinness World Record attempt, encouraging shoppers to post photos on Instagram. The campaign boosted social buzz — with 1,733 tags in an hour — and drove sales, helping Joyride rank among Target’s top-selling candy brands and linking social discovery directly to in-store purchase behavior.
Takeaway: For category managers, this means monitoring trending content, identifying high-engagement moments, and ensuring relevant products are visible both digitally and on the physical shelf. Leveraging social-driven insights can help translate online buzz into in-store and ecommerce sales.
4. Treat-Yourself Indulgence
Even amid economic caution, consumers are seeking small luxuries that bring joy. McKinsey and Circana research shows that younger shoppers — especially Gen Z — are splurging on affordable indulgences, from beauty products to premium snacks and home gadgets. Circana notes that at-home indulgence is rising, with purchases of items like single-serve blenders, espresso makers, fondue sets and spa-style massagers helping consumers create joyful, cost-effective experiences at home. The long-held “lipstick effect” highlights that shoppers will spend on items that deliver emotional satisfaction, even while cutting back elsewhere.
Brand example: E.l.f. Cosmetics and Stanley teamed up in 2024 to launch limited-edition tumblers and matching tinted lip oil holders exclusively at Target. The co-branded endcap featured stickers for personalization, sold out quickly and was promoted heavily on Instagram, TikTok and Target.com. This collaboration gave shoppers a playful, affordable way to treat themselves, blending beauty and lifestyle while tapping into social sharing and collectibility.
Takeaway: Category managers can tap into this trend by highlighting premium or indulgent options, offering smaller pack sizes and creating eye-catching displays that encourage trial. Seasonal promotions or themed tie-ins can reinforce the idea of a guilt-free treat.
5. Trial, Discovery & Dupes
Consumers are increasingly experimenting with “dupes,” or lower-cost alternatives to premium products. Morning Consult data shows that 27% of U.S. adults intentionally purchase dupes, down slightly from 2023, with Gen Z and price-conscious shoppers leading the trend. Kearney analysts also note that these consumers often use trial products to test performance before committing to higher-priced items.
Social media plays a central role: TikTok and Instagram communities share affordable alternatives across beauty and personal care, highlighting accessibility, quality and creative self-expression. “Brands don't mind when people post dupe fragrances because it eventually does lead the person to purchase the real thing," says dupe reviewer Paul Reactss.
Takeaway: Category managers can capitalize on dupe-seeking by offering entry-level products, creating trial packs, bundling new items with familiar favorites or visually comparing alternatives in merchandising. Simplifying discovery and trial encourages engagement, increases basket size and can build loyalty.
This article was originally published on P2PI, a CGT sister brand.