The Impact of Expanded GLP-1 Accessibility on the CPG Landscape
Nearly half of U.S. adults express interest in weight loss drugs, and the food industry will feel the effects if GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro become widely accessible and affordable. With GLP-1 users cutting their caloric intake by 30-40%, McKinsey projects a 1-2% contraction in the sector over the next five years, with snack foods, sugary beverages, and high-calorie convenience meals hit hardest.
CPG companies are no strangers to managing market disruptions, but will the rise of GLP-1s end up being just another consumer behavior headwind for CPG leaders to manage? Or is it the precursor to a much larger paradigm shift across the industry landscape? Amid an uncertain future, organizations must take the appropriate steps to position themselves for long-term success.
Portfolio Optimization: Understanding the Shifting Consumer Landscape
For CPG companies, navigating the GLP-1 era will require sophisticated analytics to identify and respond to changing market dynamics. Advanced AI and machine learning capabilities can detect early signals of shifting consumer preferences and buying patterns as GLP-1 adoption increases. Early indicators suggest a correlation between GLP-1 usage and healthier food choices, as many users combine medication with lifestyle changes.
For example, some patients report transitioning to ketogenic or other low-carbohydrate diets while on GLP-1s, indicating a broader shift toward health-conscious consumption patterns. By leveraging autonomous decision science platforms, CPG companies can systematically optimize their product portfolios to align with these emerging preferences, focusing on nutritional profiles that complement the dietary patterns of GLP-1 users.
Innovation and Strategic Acquisition: Building the Right Product Mix
Growth remains the North Star for CPG companies, even in the face of market contraction. This presents a dual challenge: how to innovate internally while strategically acquiring capabilities to meet new consumer demands.
Advanced analytics platforms enable companies to evaluate their existing product lines with unprecedented precision, identifying gaps where healthier alternatives or portion-controlled options could flourish. This may lead to increased merger and acquisition activity as companies look to quickly expand their presence in growing categories.
Similarly, companies need to make data-driven decisions about divesting from product lines that may face declining demand in a GLP-1-influenced market. Success in this environment requires a balanced approach to portfolio management — knowing both when to invest in promising categories and when to exit declining ones, guided by sophisticated market intelligence and predictive analytics.
Also read: RxSugar’s PIM Investments Help It Seize GLP-1 Opportunities
Navigating Policy Changes and Cost Pressures
The GLP-1 impact doesn't exist in isolation — it's occurring alongside significant structural changes in the marketplace that affect both pricing and operations.
Potential policy shifts, including new tariffs and taxes, could create additional pressure on commodity prices and supply chain costs. With companies already pushing the limits of sustainable price increases, the focus must shift to operational efficiency powered by autonomous systems. This means implementing AI-driven cost optimization measures that at least match any new cost layers introduced by policy changes, while simultaneously maintaining the capacity for product innovation and portfolio transformation.
The challenge lies in balancing these competing priorities without compromising product quality or market position — a task that demands cognitive computing capabilities.
Technology-Enabled Agility: Operating at Market Speed
The complexity of managing the intersection of portfolio optimization, product innovation, pricing strategies, and cost reduction simultaneously demands autonomous decision-making capabilities. Traditional approaches — such as taking months to analyze pricing and promotion scenarios with large teams — are no longer viable in a rapidly evolving market. Companies need cognitive reasoning and advanced analytics platforms that can automatically process the many thousands of possible scenarios and their implications at the speed of the market.
This technological infrastructure must support rapid and optimal decision-making across the entire value chain, from product development to product marketing and pricing, to supply chain orchestration. The ability to analyze vast amounts of data and quickly model different scenarios through autonomous systems will become a critical differentiator for companies looking to thrive in the GLP-1 era.
The rise of GLP-1 medications could potentially represent more than just another market headwind, fundamentally reshaping consumer behavior and, by extension, the CPG landscape. Success in this uncertain environment will require companies to be proactive rather than reactive, leveraging advanced analytics platforms to make data-driven decisions while maintaining the agility to pivot as market conditions evolve.
Those who embrace these tools to balance portfolio optimization, strategic growth initiatives, cost management, and technological capabilities will be best positioned to thrive in this transformative period for the food and beverage industry.
Stephen DeAngelis is the president and founder of Enterra Solutions.
